Project finance modelling skills in other sectors
I should caveat that by saying “Accountants..please stop building Project Finance models unless you have a great working knowledge of cash based lending.” It is a truthful observation and I don’t have a fix for it but focussing on the cashflow rather than the P&L or Balance Sheet (both of which need to be modelled but don’t service debt) will result in a far better model for a non-recourse debt analysis.
The reason to comment is that over the years and especially recently the common denominator behind models that can be categorised as:
- Fine for internal / management decisions
- Quasi Management information systems, maybe using double entry accounting modelling
- Easy to use for the person that built it
…is they were constructed by well meaning CFO’s or Financial Controllers who maybe haven’t dealt with the rigour and challenges of a live project finance transaction recently.
So what….?
Well plenty of deals have been done this way. But if you want to do things properly this presents a real problem. Its a problem because when the model is circulated outside of an organisation, say to a bank for credit analysis or to an M&A team for valuation analysis and they need to run scenario analysis on say quarterly interest rates, variable cost profiles, or analysing the returns based on regearing at a refinance date….simple tasks become very difficult to do. Aspects covered in “project finance modelling 101“ but that the all-singing all-dancing management model just wasn’t built to handle. These fixes are gradually implemented, often into analysts own versions of the model and probably become assimilated into the main model, the result is a Frankenstein of a spreadsheet - no offence!
The very real fiscal result of this is
- a very expensive model audit
- different analysts will be presenting different results
- credit committee requests for fresh analsysis, new scenarios, take embarrassingly long to prepare (and check)
- the model is probably rebuilt, at very short notice by an internal bank resource (problem #2!) which doesn’t address the requirements of the sponsor…so they become frustrated
- overall a lot of wasted time, effort and unnescessary frustration
A project finance model is not an accounting system…
Remember, a project finance transaction model is not a management reporting tool, it is not a general ledger, and if analysts cannot readily make sense of it and gain comfort that it is adequate for their needs then it will very quickly undermine their confidence in your project, which ultimately causes delay and inefficiency. Those needs can be summarised as sensitivities, scenarios and monte carlo analysis…and did I mention…scenario analysis…
